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European Geostrategy | 20:43, 6 January 2010
By James Rogers and Luis Simón
With the noughties done and dusted, we thought it would be interesting to forecast the most likely and significant events of the coming decade, from 2010 to 2020. This is a difficult endeavour by any account, but nevertheless possible—and necessary. So, here are our projections for the next ten years:
- The European Union will enlarge to cover Iceland and the Western Balkans, but Turkey will not be admitted.
- The Franco-German engine will weaken in the European Union, potentially endangering the future of European integration.
- After initially being very reluctant under a new Tory government, the United Kingdom will work with France to lead the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy.
- Russian power will grow in the European Neighbourhood and Central Asia, while European power in those regions will decline, but only due to a lack of European unity, determination and political leadership.
- China will become more aggressive politically and economically and will break out of the American ‘grand barrier’ in East Asia, which will lead to the formation of a counter-coalition led by India and Japan, aided by Australia and South Korea (making the United States very nervous).
- Brazil will emerge as the dominant power in South America, meaning the Western Hemisphere will be more and more in play as tensions between Washington and Brasilia mount.
- Piracy around the Horn of Africa will get worse, until Europeans eventually muster the courage to intensify their military operation in the region, which will require the naval bombardment of pirate havens on the land.
- Iran will get bombed, either by Israel or an American-led coalition.
- The European Union will learn nothing from the Copenhagen fiasco in December 2009 and will continue to hanker after multilateralism, to no avail.
- There will be another Islamist terror attack on a major European or American city.
Obviously, we hope many of these projections turn out to be very wrong. But grand strategy requires that we plan for the worst, while simultaneously hoping for the best. If the European Union is to keep its head above the water, it seems clear to us that the new foreign minister, Catherine Ashton, has much work to do—and that the Member States must do all they can to support her…
Recent Posts in 'Society & Culture'
Pietro De Matteis | 14:50, 4 December 2009
Writing in two paragraphs which are the main challenges for Europe is far from being an easy task. For sure there are many policy areas in which Europe should be able to give its contribution both internally (e.g. by increasing the solidarity and cooperation among the peoples of Europe), and internationally (e.g. by rising its [...]
Pietro De Matteis | 2:29, 2 December 2009
By Pietro De Matteis
As some of you might be aware of currently there is a public consultation with regards to the European Citizens’ Initiative.
This has been introduced by the Lisbon Treaty and allows 1 million citizens from the EU to present to the European Commission a request to propose legislation on a certain issue. Currently [...]
Alexis Brizzi | 19:13, 25 October 2009
Islam in Europe is a hot topic. The Turkish EU membership candidacy often triggers passionate debates about Islam place in Europe. The headscarf ban in public places in France and some marginal Muslim communities in the UK asking for the Sharia law to be used as the neighborhood’s legal framework have also had their fair [...]
Categories / tags: Current Affairs Global & International Society & Culture Christians Europe Islam Jews Religions Secular Turkey in Europe
UACES | 17:19, 22 September 2009
Amsterdam, 12-13 June 2009
The workshop brought together the contributors of an edited book project (with MUP) that seeks to advance research on the transformation of European football (and particularly the question of “Europeanisation” of football, i.e. the impact of European integration on domestic governance).
In his opening address Arne Niemann (University of Amsterdam), the workshop organizer, [...]
Categories / tags: Global & International Publications & Events Society & Culture Europeanisation Football UACES
UACES | 11:53, 25 August 2009
Perceptions of Democratisation in the Middle East
This conference was aimed at bringing together key voices from the Middle East and Europe to elucidate precisely what democracy means for the people in the former region.
Dr Michelle Pace inaugurated the conference by providing the backdrop to her project: a belief that the conceptual puzzles of democracy need [...]
newerasmus | 23:05, 21 August 2009
Do you agree that for some, still unclear to me, reason there is a certain excitement to enjoy when visiting places that are at ‘the land’s end’? One such place is Kastellorizo, a tiny Greek island 5 hours by boat from Rhodes. That’s pretty far away for Greek standards, considering that it’s only 20 [...]
Categories / tags: Current Affairs Society & Culture Uncategorized Cross-border Europe Greece Turkey
EUoplocephalus | 10:55, 17 August 2009
Last week’s flurry of media outpourings on Daniel Hannan’s comments on the NHS were interesting for several reasons. Firstly, my best friend went to university with him and we both derive much pleasure from watching his (Hannan’s) developing career.
Secondly, and more relevantly for the rest of you, it speaks to some of the comments I’ve [...]
Categories / tags: Democracy & Citizenship Media & Communications Politics & Public Policy Society & Culture The EU
European Geostrategy | 6:14, 15 August 2009
What role do think tanks play in the construction of European security strategy? This article looks at the Bertelsmann Stiftung, the Centre for European Reform, the Egmont Institute, the European Council on Foreign Relations and the European Union Institute for Security Studies, and assesses their political impact.
Categories / tags: Politics & Public Policy Security & Defence Society & Culture The EU Institutions James Rogers Think Tanks
Jaanika Erne | 22:27, 9 August 2009
For Monday morning I would recommend an Estonian national drink full of energy:
Ingredients
2,5 l milk
100 g barley meal
1 tbs butter
salt / sugar (I would recommend honey)
Method
Pour the sifted barley meal into the boiling milk using a narrow spout, stir. Season with butter and salt or sugar (honey). Serve as breakfast or supper.
Source http://www.kokaraamat.ee/rahvustoidud.php?cat=2
Categories / tags: Society & Culture
Jaanika Erne | 22:14, 8 August 2009
My Father Jaan Erne (born in 1934) with a Fellow who looks like actor Cary Grant, in 1960s.
Having graduated from the Tallinn Business School (or should I say Tallinn School of Commerce?) in 1964, my Father has well managed family resources.
For tough times, he would recommend the recipe that soon follows.
Categories / tags: Society & Culture
